Paris SG vs Troyes — Ligue 1 forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Paris SG
86%
Draw
8%
Troyes
6%
Expected goals
2.84–0.65
Paris SG · Troyes
Paris SG win 86% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13.3%), 3–0 (11.9%), 1–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Paris SG score at least twice in 80%; Troyes in 14%.
Scoreline distribution
Troyes goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Paris SG goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| Market reference | 86% | 8% | 6% |
| Metis Forecast | 86% | 8% | 6% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Paris SG
| 23 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Lille | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Brest | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 2–1 | W |
Troyes
| 22 Aug | H | vs Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–6 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Angers | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paris SG (Home · 3 matches) | Troyes (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Paris SG's home record; away stats use Troyes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.