Paris SG vs Le Mans — Ligue 1 forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Paris SG
91%
Draw
6%
Le Mans
3%
Expected goals
3.45–0.57
Paris SG · Le Mans
Paris SG win 91% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 3–0 (12.5%), 2–0 (11.0%), 4–0 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 42% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Paris SG score at least twice in 87%; Le Mans in 11%.
Scoreline distribution
Le Mans goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 14.6 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Paris SG goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| Market reference | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| Metis Forecast | 91% | 6% | 3% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Paris SG
| 23 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Lille | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Brest | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 2–1 | W |
Le Mans
| 22 Aug | H | vs Brest | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Nice | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Lens | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paris SG (Home · 1 match) | Le Mans (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Paris SG's home record; away stats use Le Mans's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.