Two sides in desperate straits near the foot of the Ligue 1 table, with both carrying form that offers little confidence heading into this late-season clash. Nice have taken just one point from their last five, while Metz have managed only a draw in that same stretch, arriving as the weaker travellers with an away record that reads poorly across the board.

The defensive numbers stand out here. Metz have conceded an average of 2.8 goals per away game this season, and their clean sheet rate of just 12% on the road is among the worst in the division. Their away BTTS figure of 56% sits above the league average, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of their away fixtures, well clear of the 53% league norm.

Nice have struggled to control games at home, averaging nearly 1.7 goals conceded per match. This looks like a match where goals are likely regardless of the result, and the visitors are firmly undervalued as a relegation-threatened side with nothing to lose.