Nice arrive at this one in poor shape, winning just once in their last five and sitting precariously in 15th, with relegation pressure likely sharpening minds but also nerves. At home they have averaged 1.2 goals scored against 1.7 conceded this season, keeping clean sheets in only 20% of home games. That defensive fragility is a real concern against a Lens side pushing hard for a Champions League place from second position.

Lens have been consistently productive on the road, averaging 1.6 goals per game away from home with an O2.5 rate of 71%, well above the Ligue 1 average of 51%. Their BTTS figure of 57% away also edges above the league norm, and with Nice contributing goals at both ends regularly, the conditions for an open game are present.

The data suggests Lens are the stronger outfit by some distance here, and this looks like a fixture where the visitors are undervalued. Expect Lens to control the tempo and test a Nice backline that has struggled all season.