Metz head into this one in desperate shape, winless in their last five with four defeats, and their league position tells its own story. Sitting bottom of the table, they are averaging under a goal per game at home this season and have kept just two clean sheets in home fixtures — a side clearly struggling to generate and protect. Lorient arrive in mid-table comfort and have shown some resilience away from home, but their own away numbers are subdued, with goals at a premium in their travels.

The data suggests this is a low-scoring affair. Both sides sit well below the league average for BTTS and Over 2.5 goals, and neither has shown a consistent ability to find the net in these respective settings. Historically there is only one meeting to reference, which ended level.

Metz's form is alarming enough that Lorient look like the stronger side here, and this fixture looks tighter than it should be given how poorly the hosts have performed.