Marseille head into this late-season clash in inconsistent form, picking up just two wins from their last five and sitting a place below their visitors in the table. Rennes arrive in considerably better shape, winning four of their last five away from home, and that travelling confidence matters heading into a fixture where the stakes are high for both clubs chasing European positioning.

The goal data tells an interesting story. Marseille's home games have been high-scoring affairs, sitting well above the league average for both BTTS and Over 2.5 outcomes, and they are averaging 2.4 goals scored at home. Rennes away, however, clean up at the back more often than that rate would suggest, keeping clean sheets in over a third of away games. The limited head-to-head record favours Rennes, who took the points in the most recent meeting.

Form, standings, and recent results all point toward Rennes being undervalued here. This looks like a closer contest than the home side's supporters might hope.