Lyon head into this one in inconsistent form, managing just one win in their last five league outings, though their home defensive record has been quietly impressive — conceding fewer than a goal per game on average and keeping clean sheets in over half their home fixtures. That defensive solidity sits well below the league average for BTTS, suggesting Lyon at home tends to be a low-scoring, contained affair.

Rennes arrive in considerably better shape, winning three of their last five away from home, and their away fixtures have been notably high-scoring — over 2.5 goals in a significant majority of those games, well above the league average. However, they have been leaking goals on the road, averaging close to two conceded per away game.

The clash of Lyon's defensive home structure against Rennes' open away tendencies makes this one genuinely intriguing. The visitors are the form side and look undervalued given the limited head-to-head sample favours them.