🇫🇷 Ligue 1·Saturday, 29 August 2026·18:45
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 1.89 | 1.89 |
| Draw | 3.59 | 3.59 |
| Troyes | 4.48 | 4.48 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketLorient
52%
Draw
27%
Troyes
21%
Lorient 1.68 xGexpected goals1.05 xG Troyes
Lorient win 52% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.8%).
Lorient score at least twice in 50%; Troyes in 28%.
1–1 12.8%1–0 10.3%2–1 10.2%2–0 9.1%0–0 7.5%1–2 5.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Lorient goals · columns = Troyes goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Over 4.5 goals14%
Lorient clean sheet35%
Troyes clean sheet18%
Lorient score 2+50%
Troyes score 2+28%
Lorient score 3+24%
Model vs market
| Source | Lorient | Draw | Troyes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 27% | 21% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Lorient
| 17 Aug | A | vs Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Rennes | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Lille | 1–7 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 0–4 | L |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 1–1 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Lorient (Home) | Troyes (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.9% | — |
| Clean sheet | 23.5% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.29 | — |
Home stats use Lorient's home record; away stats use Troyes's away record this season.