Lorient vs Troyes — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lorient
52%
top pick
Draw
27%
Troyes
21%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Troyes win 21.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lorient win. Expected goals 1.63–1.05 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–0 (11.3%), 2–1 (10.9%). It finished 1–2.
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Lorient
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nice | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Troyes | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Lens | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Le Mans | 1–2 | L |
Troyes
| 22 Aug | H | vs Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–6 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Angers | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lorient (Home · 2 matches) | Troyes (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Lorient's home record; away stats use Troyes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.