Lille vs Troyes — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 28.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lille
69%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Troyes
12%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lille win 68.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lille win. Expected goals 1.98–0.85 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.4%), 2–1 (12.8%), 2–0 (12.4%). It finished 2–0 — one of them.
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Lille
| 23 Aug | A | vs Angers | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Toulouse | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Nice | 1–2 | L |
Troyes
| 22 Aug | H | vs Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–6 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Angers | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lille (Home · 5 matches) | Troyes (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Lille's home record; away stats use Troyes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.