Lens head into this one in decent nick, alternating wins and losses in their last five but sitting second in the table and looking like a side with plenty of firepower at home. Their home numbers are striking — averaging 2.3 goals scored and conceding just 0.7 per game, with a clean sheet rate well above the norm. Their BTTS and Over 2.5 figures are below the Ligue 1 average, which tells you this is a team that dominates and suffocates rather than trades blows.

Nantes arrive in serious trouble, sitting 17th and mustering just one win in their last five away from home. They average only 0.7 goals on the road and have kept just over a quarter of clean sheets away, making them vulnerable here.

The data suggests Lens are the stronger side by a considerable margin, and this looks like a match where the home side controls proceedings. Nantes' survival fight may not be enough to shift the balance.