Le Mans vs Lorient — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Le Mans
35%
result
Draw
28%
Lorient
37%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Le Mans win 34.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lorient win. Expected goals 1.27–1.34 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.3%), 0–1 (8.7%), 1–0 (8.6%). It finished 2–1.
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Le Mans
| 22 Aug | H | vs Brest | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Nice | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Lens | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
Lorient
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nice | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Troyes | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Lens | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Le Mans | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Le Mans (Home · 4 matches) | Lorient (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 1.00 |
Home stats use Le Mans's home record; away stats use Lorient's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.