Auxerre have been grinding out low-scoring draws of late, and their home numbers tell a cautious story — BTTS in just 27% of home games compared to the league average of 49%, with clean sheets in nearly half their matches. They average under a goal scored per home game, so their defensive structure is clearly the foundation. Nice away, however, are a completely different proposition — BTTS in 60% of road games, conceding an average of two per away match, and keeping clean sheets in just 13% of them. That's a leaky backline that Auxerre will look to exploit on the counter.

The head-to-head record is minimal but the away form from Nice — two losses in their last five, only drawing twice — suggests some inconsistency. This is a mid-table scrap between two sides with nothing to play for in terms of European qualification, but the data suggests Nice's defensive fragility could make this more open than expected. The goals lean looks more promising than the match result.