Auxerre vs Le Mans — Ligue 1 forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Auxerre
46%
Draw
25%
Le Mans
28%
Expected goals
1.53–1.11
Auxerre · Le Mans
Auxerre win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–0 (10.0%), 2–1 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Auxerre win is 1–0 (10.0%).
Auxerre score at least twice in 45%; Le Mans in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Le Mans goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Auxerre goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 27% | 25% |
| Market reference | 46% | 25% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 25% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Auxerre | 2.10 |
| Draw | 3.77 |
| Le Mans | 3.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Auxerre
| 22 Aug | A | vs Lens | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Angers | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nice | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Brest | 2–1 | W |
Le Mans
| 22 Aug | H | vs Brest | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Nice | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Lens | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Auxerre (Home · 3 matches) | Le Mans (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Auxerre's home record; away stats use Le Mans's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.