Angers vs Troyes — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Angers
45%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Troyes
27%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Angers win 45.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Angers win. Expected goals 1.46–1.11 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–0 (10.9%), 2–1 (9.8%). It finished 2–0.
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Angers
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Rennes | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Troyes | 2–0 | W |
Troyes
| 22 Aug | H | vs Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–6 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Angers | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Angers (Home · 5 matches) | Troyes (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Angers's home record; away stats use Troyes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.