Valladolid vs Oviedo — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 29.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Valladolid
38%
top pick
Draw
32%
Oviedo
30%
result
Final score
0–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Oviedo win 29.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Valladolid win. Expected goals 1.24–1.08 against 0–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.3%), 0–0 (11.4%), 1–0 (10.7%). It finished 0–3.
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Valladolid
| 15 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Oviedo
| 15 Aug | H | vs Granada | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Burgos | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Valladolid (Home · 6 matches) | Oviedo (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.17 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Valladolid's home record; away stats use Oviedo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.