Tenerife vs Leganes — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 34.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Tenerife
37%
pick · result
Draw
32%
Leganes
31%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Tenerife win 36.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Tenerife win. Expected goals 1.16–1.03 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.8%), 0–0 (12.5%), 1–0 (11.3%). It finished 2–0.
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Tenerife
| 16 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 2–0 | W |
Leganes
| 16 Aug | A | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tenerife (Home · 5 matches) | Leganes (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 28.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 2.71 |
Home stats use Tenerife's home record; away stats use Leganes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.