Tenerife vs Cadiz — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 26 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Tenerife
52%
Draw
29%
Cadiz
20%
Expected goals
1.45–0.82
Tenerife · Cadiz
Tenerife win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14.8%), 1–1 (13.2%), 0–0 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 44% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Tenerife score at least twice in 43%; Cadiz in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Cadiz goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Tenerife goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Market reference | 52% | 29% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 29% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.88 | 1.89 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 3.46 | 3.35 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.91 | 3.46 1xBet |
| Cadiz | 4.74 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.47 | 4.65 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 3.65 | 4.74 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Tenerife
| 16 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 2–0 | W |
Cadiz
| 15 Aug | H | vs Celta B | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Eldense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Almeria | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tenerife (Home · 3 matches) | Cadiz (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.33 | 4.50 |
Home stats use Tenerife's home record; away stats use Cadiz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.