Tenerife vs Cadiz — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 26 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Tenerife
52%
top pick
Draw
28%
result
Cadiz
20%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Tenerife win. Expected goals 1.45–0.83 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (14.9%), 1–1 (12.8%), 2–0 (10.9%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Tenerife
| 16 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 2–0 | W |
Cadiz
| 15 Aug | H | vs Celta B | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Eldense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Almeria | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tenerife (Home · 5 matches) | Cadiz (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Tenerife's home record; away stats use Cadiz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.