Sp Gijon vs Girona — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sp Gijon
32%
Draw
29%
Girona
39%
pick · result
Final score
0–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Girona win 39.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Girona win. Expected goals 1.16–1.24 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 0–1 (11.5%), 0–0 (9.8%). It finished 0–2.
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Sp Gijon
| 17 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Burgos | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Girona | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Eldense | 0–1 | L |
Girona
| 16 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sp Gijon (Home · 6 matches) | Girona (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Sp Gijon's home record; away stats use Girona's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.