Sporting Gijon come into this in wretched form, winning just one of their last five and sitting mid-table with little to play for. Almeria, by contrast, arrive on the back of four unbeaten away fixtures and are pushing hard for automatic promotion from second place, which tells you everything about the motivational gap here.

The data suggests this should be a relatively open affair. Both sides sit above the league average for BTTS and Over 2.5, and Almeria have kept just one clean sheet in five away games this season, while Gijon have been leaking goals at home despite decent scoring numbers of their own.

Almeria's away consistency and their promotion stakes make this look like a match where the visitors are undervalued. Gijon's home record offers little comfort given their current run, and historically there is only one meeting between these sides, which went Almeria's way.