🇪🇸 La Liga 2·Saturday, 29 August 2026·15:00

Sabadell

15:00

— vs 3rd

WDLLW

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Sabadell	2.69	2.69
Draw	3.18	3.18
Almeria	2.88	2.88

Metis Forecast

model + market

Sabadell

37%

Draw

30%

Almeria

32%

Sabadell 1.31 xGexpected goals1.20 xG Almeria

Sabadell win 37% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 53% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.4%).

Sabadell score at least twice in 38%; Almeria in 34%.

1–1 14.4%0–0 9.5%1–0 9.3%0–1 8.6%2–1 8.2%1–2 7.6%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	9.5	8.6	5.7	2.3	0.7	0.2
1	9.3	14.4	7.6	3.0	0.9	0.3
2	6.9	8.2	5.3	2.0	0.6	0.2
3	3.0	3.6	2.2	0.9	0.3	0.1
4	1.0	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0
5+	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

rows = Sabadell goals · columns = Almeria goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score53%

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Over 4.5 goals11%

Sabadell clean sheet30%

Almeria clean sheet27%

Sabadell score 2+38%

Almeria score 2+34%

Sabadell score 3+15%

Model vs market

Source	Sabadell	Draw	Almeria
Raw Metis model	39%	29%	32%
Market (de-vigged)	37%	30%	32%
Metis Forecast	37%	30%	32%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

No recent results.

Almeria

18 Aug	H	vs Albacete	4–4	D
24 Aug	A	vs Cultural Leonesa	1–0	W
29 Aug	A	vs Sociedad B	2–2	D
7 Sept	H	vs Santander	2–3	L
13 Sept	A	vs Valladolid	1–3	L

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Sabadell (Home)	Almeria (Away)
BTTS rate	—	66.7%
Over 2.5 rate	—	57.1%
Clean sheet	—	19.0%
Avg goals	—	2.95

Home stats use Sabadell's home record; away stats use Almeria's away record this season.

Almeria →🇪🇸 La Liga 2 standings & fixtures