Sabadell vs Almeria — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sabadell
37%
pick · result
Draw
30%
Almeria
32%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sabadell win 37.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sabadell win. Expected goals 1.31–1.20 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–0 (9.5%), 1–0 (9.3%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Sabadell
| 17 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Castellon | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sabadell (Home · 4 matches) | Almeria (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 1.25 |
Home stats use Sabadell's home record; away stats use Almeria's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.