Oviedo vs Sp Gijon — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.7 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Oviedo
47%
pick · result
Draw
30%
Sp Gijon
23%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Oviedo win 46.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Oviedo win. Expected goals 1.28–0.84 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (15.1%), 1–1 (13.7%), 0–0 (12.8%). It finished 2–0.
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Oviedo
| 15 Aug | H | vs Granada | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Burgos | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 3–0 | W |
Sp Gijon
| 17 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Burgos | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Girona | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Eldense | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Oviedo (Home · 6 matches) | Sp Gijon (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Oviedo's home record; away stats use Sp Gijon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.