Oviedo vs Sp Gijon — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Oviedo
46%
Draw
30%
Sp Gijon
23%
Expected goals
1.27–0.84
Oviedo · Sp Gijon
Oviedo win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15.0%), 1–1 (13.6%), 0–0 (12.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 42% of simulations.
Those three cover 41% of outcomes; the other 59% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Oviedo score at least twice in 36%; Sp Gijon in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Sp Gijon goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Oviedo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 32% | 26% |
| Market reference | 46% | 30% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 30% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | 2.07 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 2.07 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.01 | 2.02 | 2.10 Bet365 |
| Draw | 3.14 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.18 | 2.84 | 3.28 1xBet |
| Sp Gijon | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 4.05 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.30 | 4.05 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Oviedo
| 15 Aug | H | vs Granada | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Burgos | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 3–0 | W |
Sp Gijon
| 17 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Burgos | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Girona | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Eldense | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Oviedo (Home · 3 matches) | Sp Gijon (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 0.33 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Oviedo's home record; away stats use Sp Gijon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.