🇪🇸 La Liga 2·Sunday, 30 August 2026·17:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| Draw | 4.89 | 4.89 |
| Ceuta | 6.69 | 6.69 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketMallorca
68%
Draw
19%
Ceuta
13%
Mallorca 1.91 xGexpected goals0.82 xG Ceuta
Mallorca win 68% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (14.3%).
Mallorca score at least twice in 59%; Ceuta in 20%.
1–0 14.3%2–0 12.8%2–1 12.5%1–1 8.9%3–0 7.1%3–1 6.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Mallorca goals · columns = Ceuta goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score49%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals14%
Mallorca clean sheet44%
Ceuta clean sheet13%
Mallorca score 2+59%
Ceuta score 2+20%
Mallorca score 3+29%
Model vs market
| Source | Mallorca | Draw | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 68% | 19% | 13% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Ceuta
| 15 Aug | A | vs Valladolid | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Santander | 1–4 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Huesca | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Castellon | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Mallorca (Home) | Ceuta (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 52.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | — | 23.8% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.00 |
Home stats use Mallorca's home record; away stats use Ceuta's away record this season.