Mallorca vs Ceuta — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mallorca
67%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Ceuta
13%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Mallorca win 67.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Mallorca win. Expected goals 1.89–0.81 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (14.5%), 2–0 (12.9%), 2–1 (12.4%). It finished 3–0.
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Mallorca
| 15 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Granada | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Eldense | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sabadell | 2–0 | W |
Ceuta
| 15 Aug | A | vs Andorra | 1–5 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celta B | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Burgos | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mallorca (Home · 4 matches) | Ceuta (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Mallorca's home record; away stats use Ceuta's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.