Mallorca vs Almeria — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mallorca
46%
top pick
Draw
30%
Almeria
24%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Almeria win 24.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Mallorca win. Expected goals 1.44–0.98 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.2%), 1–0 (11.2%), 0–0 (10.3%). It finished 0–1.
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Mallorca
| 15 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Granada | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Eldense | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sabadell | 2–0 | W |
Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mallorca (Home · 6 matches) | Almeria (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 16.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.17 |
Home stats use Mallorca's home record; away stats use Almeria's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.