Mallorca vs Almeria — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mallorca
47%
Draw
29%
Almeria
24%
Expected goals
1.46–0.97
Mallorca · Almeria
Mallorca win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–0 (11.6%), 0–0 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Mallorca win is 1–0 (11.6%).
Mallorca score at least twice in 43%; Almeria in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Almeria goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mallorca goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market reference | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 29% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | 2.05 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.06 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.99 | 2.02 | 2.10 Betano |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.01 | 3.40 1xBet |
| Almeria | 3.88 | 3.75 | 3.30 | 3.82 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 3.11 | 3.88 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Mallorca
| 15 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Granada | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Eldense | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sabadell | 2–0 | W |
Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mallorca (Home · 3 matches) | Almeria (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 1.33 |
Home stats use Mallorca's home record; away stats use Almeria's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.