Leganes vs Mallorca — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Leganes
29%
Draw
30%
Mallorca
41%
Expected goals
1.01–1.25
Leganes · Mallorca
Mallorca win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 0–1 (12.1%), 0–0 (11.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Leganes score at least twice in 27%; Mallorca in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Mallorca goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 14.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Leganes goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 31% | 41% |
| Market reference | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Metis Forecast | 29% | 30% | 41% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Leganes | 3.28 |
| Draw | 3.14 |
| Mallorca | 2.35 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Leganes
| 16 Aug | A | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Mallorca
| 15 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Granada | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Eldense | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sabadell | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Leganes (Home · 4 matches) | Mallorca (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 1.00 |
Home stats use Leganes's home record; away stats use Mallorca's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.