🇪🇸 La Liga 2·Saturday, 29 August 2026·17:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Draw | 3.51 | 3.51 |
| Eldense | 4.43 | 4.43 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketLeganes
51%
Draw
27%
Eldense
22%
Leganes 1.54 xGexpected goals0.94 xG Eldense
Leganes win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.0%).
Leganes score at least twice in 46%; Eldense in 24%.
1–1 13.0%1–0 12.3%2–0 10.0%2–1 9.7%0–0 9.2%0–1 6.6%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Leganes goals · columns = Eldense goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score49%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Leganes clean sheet39%
Eldense clean sheet21%
Leganes score 2+46%
Eldense score 2+24%
Leganes score 3+20%
Model vs market
| Source | Leganes | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 27% | 22% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Leganes
| 17 Aug | A | vs Huesca | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Cultural Leonesa | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Granada | 2–0 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Leganes (Home) | Eldense (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.1% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 38.1% | — |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | — |
| Avg goals | 2.19 | — |
Home stats use Leganes's home record; away stats use Eldense's away record this season.