Leganes vs Eldense — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 1.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Leganes
51%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Eldense
21%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Leganes win 51.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Leganes win. Expected goals 1.56–0.94 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (12.2%), 2–0 (10.1%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Leganes
| 16 Aug | A | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Eldense
| 17 Aug | A | vs Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Leganes (Home · 3 matches) | Eldense (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 1.50 |
Home stats use Leganes's home record; away stats use Eldense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.