Las Palmas head into this fixture in strong home form, winning four of their last five at home and sitting fifth in the table with genuine promotion ambitions. Their defensive record at home has been exceptional this season, conceding an average of just 0.6 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in 42% of home matches. Both of those figures sit well below the league average, making them one of the tightest home sides in La Liga 2.

Valladolid arrive in poor away form, picking up just one win from their last five on the road, and their defensive fragility away from home is a concern, conceding 1.6 per game with a clean sheet rate of just 22%. The limited head-to-head history favours the hosts.

With Las Palmas so hard to break down at home and Valladolid struggling to travel well, this looks tighter and lower-scoring than the league average suggests. The hosts appear undervalued here.