Las Palmas vs Eldense — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Las Palmas
47%
Draw
28%
Eldense
26%
Expected goals
1.43–0.97
Las Palmas · Eldense
Las Palmas win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 1–0 (11.8%), 0–0 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Las Palmas win is 1–0 (11.8%).
Las Palmas score at least twice in 42%; Eldense in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Eldense goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Las Palmas goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market reference | 47% | 28% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 28% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 2.09 |
| Draw | 3.46 |
| Eldense | 3.72 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 08 Nov · 05:14 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.39–1.02 → 1.43–0.97
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Las Palmas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
Eldense
| 17 Aug | A | vs Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Las Palmas (Home · 6 matches) | Eldense (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 16.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.17 |
Home stats use Las Palmas's home record; away stats use Eldense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.