Granada vs Tenerife — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Granada
51%
Draw
27%
Tenerife
23%
Expected goals
1.57–0.93
Granada · Tenerife
Granada win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–0 (11.5%), 2–0 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Granada win is 1–0 (11.5%).
Granada score at least twice in 46%; Tenerife in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Tenerife goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Granada goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 26% | 17% |
| Market reference | 51% | 27% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 27% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Granada | 1.91 |
| Draw | 3.55 |
| Tenerife | 4.10 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Granada
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Mallorca | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eibar | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 1–1 | D |
Tenerife
| 16 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Granada (Home · 5 matches) | Tenerife (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Granada's home record; away stats use Tenerife's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.