Granada head into this one in wretched form, losing four of their last five at home and managing just 1.4 goals per game on their own patch this season. Their defensive record is respectable, but the attack has been misfiring at a critical stage of the campaign. Sp Gijon arrive in slightly better shape, back-to-back away wins giving them some momentum, though they have conceded 1.6 per game on the road and kept just one clean sheet in fifteen away fixtures.

The head-to-head sample is thin, with Gijon taking the only previous meeting. Both sides sit mid-table and the tension of a dead rubber is absent, which could loosen things up. Gijon's away BTTS rate of 55% mirrors the league norm, but their O2.5 rate of 50% edges close to the league average of 51%, suggesting games involving them on the road tend to have substance.

With Granada's home O2.5 rate a notably low 35% against a league average of 51%, this looks tighter and lower-scoring than many might expect, and Gijon's quality in transition makes them quietly interesting here.