Granada head into this one in inconsistent form, alternating between defeats and wins across their last five home outings, while Burgos arrive with a more settled recent run — unbeaten in four of their last five away from home. The visitors sit seventh and will fancy their chances against a Granada side that has underperformed at home all season, averaging just 1.4 goals scored per game on their own patch.

The scoring data points to a tight, low-scoring affair. Granada's home BTTS rate of 58% sits close to the league average, but their over 2.5 rate of just 37% is well below the league norm of 51%, suggesting goals are hard to come by at their ground. Burgos away matches tell a similar story on defensive solidity, keeping clean sheets in over a third of road trips. The one previous meeting ended in a draw, and this fixture has the hallmarks of another cagey contest. Burgos look undervalued as the away side here.