Girona vs Las Palmas — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Girona
54%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Las Palmas
20%
Final score
5–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Girona win 53.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Girona win. Expected goals 1.51–0.93 against 5–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (14.4%), 1–1 (12.4%), 2–1 (11.4%). It finished 5–2.
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Girona
| 16 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Las Palmas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Girona (Home · 5 matches) | Las Palmas (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Girona's home record; away stats use Las Palmas's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.