🇪🇸 La Liga 2·Saturday, 29 August 2026·19:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.71 |
| Las Palmas | 4.89 | 4.89 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketGirona
55%
Draw
26%
Las Palmas
19%
Girona 1.53 xGexpected goals0.90 xG Las Palmas
Girona win 55% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (14.8%).
Girona score at least twice in 46%; Las Palmas in 22%.
1–0 14.8%1–1 12.2%2–1 11.3%2–0 10.6%0–0 9.0%0–1 5.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Girona goals · columns = Las Palmas goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score48%
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Girona clean sheet41%
Las Palmas clean sheet20%
Girona score 2+46%
Las Palmas score 2+22%
Girona score 3+19%
Model vs market
| Source | Girona | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 30% | 29% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 26% | 19% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Las Palmas
| 17 Aug | H | vs Andorra | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Burgos | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Girona (Home) | Las Palmas (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 61.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 47.6% |
| Clean sheet | — | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.38 |
Home stats use Girona's home record; away stats use Las Palmas's away record this season.