Girona vs Castellon — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Girona
43%
top pick
Draw
28%
Castellon
29%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Castellon win 29.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Girona win. Expected goals 1.45–1.14 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (9.5%), 0–0 (8.6%). It finished 1–2.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Girona
| 16 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Castellon
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo II | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Girona (Home · 7 matches) | Castellon (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| Avg goals | 3.14 | 2.14 |
Home stats use Girona's home record; away stats use Castellon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.