Girona vs Almeria — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Girona
48%
Draw
26%
Almeria
27%
Expected goals
1.53–1.13
Girona · Almeria
Girona win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–0 (10.6%), 2–1 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Girona win is 1–0 (10.6%).
Girona score at least twice in 46%; Almeria in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Almeria goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Girona goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 26% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Girona | 2.03 |
| Draw | 3.68 |
| Almeria | 3.53 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Girona
| 16 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Girona (Home · 7 matches) | Almeria (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.14 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Girona's home record; away stats use Almeria's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.