Girona vs Albacete — La Liga 2 forecast, Friday, 25 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Girona
64%
Draw
20%
Albacete
16%
Expected goals
1.99–0.90
Girona · Albacete
Girona win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.4%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–1 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Girona score at least twice in 60%; Albacete in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Albacete goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Girona goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market reference | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 20% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 1.51 | 1.40 | 1.44 | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.45 | 1.51 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 4.55 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 4.59 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.45 | 3.91 | 4.59 1xBet |
| Albacete | 5.72 | 6.50 | 5.50 | 6.24 | 6.30 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 6.05 | 5.03 | 6.50 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Girona
| 16 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Albacete
| 16 Aug | A | vs Las Palmas | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Oviedo | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Castellon | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Granada | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Girona (Home · 3 matches) | Albacete (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Girona's home record; away stats use Albacete's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.