Eldense vs Granada — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Eldense
42%
Draw
28%
Granada
30%
Expected goals
1.39–1.21
Eldense · Granada
Eldense win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Eldense score at least twice in 41%; Granada in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Granada goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Eldense goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 28% | 36% |
| Market reference | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Eldense
| 17 Aug | A | vs Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Granada
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Mallorca | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eibar | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Eldense (Home · 5 matches) | Granada (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Eldense's home record; away stats use Granada's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.