Cordoba vs Tenerife — La Liga 2 forecast, Monday, 5 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cordoba
50%
Draw
26%
Tenerife
24%
Expected goals
1.49–0.97
Cordoba · Tenerife
Cordoba win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.8%), 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cordoba score at least twice in 44%; Tenerife in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Tenerife goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cordoba goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Market reference | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Cordoba | 1.92 |
| Draw | 3.61 |
| Tenerife | 3.93 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 29 Sep · 04:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.41–1.01 → 1.49–0.97
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Cordoba
| 16 Aug | A | vs Burgos | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Girona | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Granada | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Sabadell | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Almeria | 0–2 | L |
Tenerife
| 16 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cordoba (Home · 3 matches) | Tenerife (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Cordoba's home record; away stats use Tenerife's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.