Ceuta head into this mid-table clash in uninspiring form, picking up just one win from their last five and failing to score in several of those draws. At home they have been reasonably solid defensively, conceding an average of 1.0 per game, but their attack has lacked punch. Malaga arrive in sixth, still pushing for a playoff position, and their away record is a mixed bag — two wins but also two defeats in their last five on the road. The one previous meeting went in Malaga's favour, and the visitors carry enough quality to trouble a Ceuta side low on confidence.

Both teams show BTTS and Over 2.5 rates comfortably in line with or above the league average, and Malaga have kept just two clean sheets away all season, suggesting this fixture has the ingredients for goals. This looks like a game where Malaga's playoff motivation gives them the edge, and the visitors may be slightly undervalued given Ceuta's recent stagnation.