Ceuta head into this one in unconvincing form, managing just one win in their last five and failing to keep the game moving in any meaningful direction through four draws. Castellon arrive in far better shape, sitting fifth and having won three of their last five on the road, suggesting genuine quality and consistency away from home. The visitors look undervalued here given the gulf in current form and league position.

Goalscoring data adds an interesting layer. Both sides sit marginally above the league average for BTTS and Over 2.5, and Castellon have been productive on their travels, averaging 1.4 goals scored per away game while conceding at a modest rate. Ceuta's defensive record at home is reasonable but their attacking output is limited. The lone H2H meeting ended level, so there is a precedent for Ceuta grinding out a result, but the overall picture points to Castellon being the stronger side on the day.