Albacete arrive at this one in formidable shape, having won four of their last five on the road, and their away defensive record is notably solid — keeping clean sheets in 45% of away fixtures compared to a league average closer to the mid-thirties. Ceuta have been inconsistent at home, mixing wins and draws with the occasional slip, and their attacking output of 1.4 goals per game at home is modest at best.

The only previous meeting ended level, and there is little in the underlying numbers to suggest this will be a high-scoring affair. Both sides average around 1.1 goals conceded in their respective home and away games, and Albacete's away BTTS rate of 50% sits below the league norm of 56%.

Albacete's momentum and defensive discipline on the road makes them the more compelling side here, and this looks like a game where the visitors are undervalued despite the mid-table context.