Celta B vs Sociedad B — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Celta B
42%
Draw
27%
Sociedad B
31%
Expected goals
1.48–1.20
Celta B · Sociedad B
Celta B win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–0 (8.9%), 2–1 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Celta B win is 1–0 (8.9%).
Celta B score at least twice in 43%; Sociedad B in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Sociedad B goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Celta B goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market reference | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Celta B
| 15 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Andorra | 4–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Eibar | 0–4 | L |
Sociedad B
| 14 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Burgos | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Tenerife | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Andorra | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Celta B (Home · 4 matches) | Sociedad B (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Celta B's home record; away stats use Sociedad B's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.