Castellon vs Tenerife — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Castellon
62%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Tenerife
16%
Final score
5–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Castellon win 62.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Castellon win. Expected goals 1.83–0.77 against 5–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.0%), 2–0 (12.6%), 1–1 (10.4%). It finished 5–0.
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Castellon
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo II | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
Tenerife
| 16 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Castellon (Home · 5 matches) | Tenerife (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 80.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Castellon's home record; away stats use Tenerife's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.