Cadiz vs Girona — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cadiz
25%
Draw
27%
Girona
48%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Girona win 48.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Girona win. Expected goals 1.03–1.53 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 0–1 (11.0%), 1–2 (9.4%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Cadiz
| 15 Aug | H | vs Celta B | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Eldense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Almeria | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Girona
| 16 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cadiz (Home · 7 matches) | Girona (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.9% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.14 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Cadiz's home record; away stats use Girona's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.