Burgos vs Eldense — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Burgos
45%
pick · result
Draw
30%
Eldense
24%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Burgos win 45.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Burgos win. Expected goals 1.39–0.91 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (11.8%), 0–0 (11.5%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Eldense
| 17 Aug | A | vs Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Burgos (Home · 7 matches) | Eldense (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 16.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.57 | 2.17 |
Home stats use Burgos's home record; away stats use Eldense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.