Burgos vs Eldense — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Burgos
52%
Draw
27%
Eldense
21%
Expected goals
1.49–0.85
Burgos · Eldense
Burgos win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.6%), 1–1 (12.6%), 2–0 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 44% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Burgos score at least twice in 44%; Eldense in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Eldense goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Burgos goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Market reference | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 27% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 1.93 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 1.87 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.93 | 1.93 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.52 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.42 | 3.00 | 3.52 1xBet |
| Eldense | 4.20 | 4.50 | 3.90 | 4.38 | 4.40 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 4.25 | 3.37 | 4.50 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Eldense
| 17 Aug | A | vs Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Burgos (Home · 3 matches) | Eldense (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.33 | 1.67 |
Home stats use Burgos's home record; away stats use Eldense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.