Burgos vs Celta B — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Burgos
55%
Draw
25%
Celta B
20%
Expected goals
1.61–0.87
Burgos · Celta B
Burgos win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.3%), 1–1 (11.8%), 2–0 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Burgos score at least twice in 48%; Celta B in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Celta B goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Burgos goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Market reference | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 25% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Celta B
| 15 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Andorra | 4–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Eibar | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Burgos (Home · 6 matches) | Celta B (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Burgos's home record; away stats use Celta B's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.