Burgos head into this one in decent but not commanding shape, with two wins bookended by a loss and two draws in their last five. At home they have been defensively solid, keeping clean sheets in 42% of games and conceding less than a goal per match on average, well below the league norm. Almeria arrive as the form side, winning four of their last five away from home, but their away defensive record is a concern, conceding in 84% of road trips with an average of 1.6 per game.

The goal data tells an interesting story. Burgos home games have seen BTTS in just 42% of matches and Over 2.5 in only 21%, both well below the league averages of 56% and 51% respectively. Almeria away games trend the opposite way, with BTTS at 68% and Over 2.5 at 58%. Those competing tendencies make this one genuinely hard to call on goals.

The only previous meeting went to Burgos, and with the hosts defensively organised and Almeria carrying promotion ambitions but suspect on the road defensively, this looks tighter than a second-versus-seventh matchup might suggest on paper. The visitors are the quality side, but Burgos at home are undervalued here.