Both sides arrive at this promotion showdown in near-identical form, each having won four of their last five, making this a genuinely hard game to call on recent momentum alone. Almeria sit second and will be desperate to protect their automatic promotion spot, while Las Palmas in fourth need points to stay in the playoff conversation. The limited head-to-head record favors the hosts, though one meeting tells us little at this stage.

The most striking contrast here is in the attacking output. Almeria's home games have been relentlessly high-scoring, with their BTTS and Over 2.5 rates both well above the league average. Las Palmas away, however, tell a very different story, keeping more clean sheets and conceding at a modest rate that sits well below what Almeria typically face at home.

This looks like a more complicated game than the attacking data alone might suggest. Las Palmas have shown they can be disciplined on the road, and with promotion stakes this high, the visitors are unlikely to open up carelessly.