Almeria vs Celta B — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Almeria
67%
pick · result
Draw
20%
Celta B
13%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Almeria win 66.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Almeria win. Expected goals 1.88–0.81 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (14.3%), 2–0 (12.8%), 2–1 (12.1%). It finished 2–0 — one of them.
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Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Celta B
| 15 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Andorra | 4–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Eibar | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Almeria (Home · 6 matches) | Celta B (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Almeria's home record; away stats use Celta B's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.