Albacete vs Sabadell — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Albacete
37%
Draw
30%
Sabadell
33%
Expected goals
1.19–1.16
Albacete · Sabadell
Albacete win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 1–0 (11.0%), 0–0 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Albacete score at least twice in 34%; Sabadell in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Sabadell goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 14.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Albacete goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Market reference | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 30% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Albacete | 2.59 |
| Draw | 3.15 |
| Sabadell | 2.89 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Albacete
| 16 Aug | A | vs Las Palmas | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Oviedo | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Castellon | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Granada | 1–1 | D |
Sabadell
| 17 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Castellon | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Albacete (Home · 4 matches) | Sabadell (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 16.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 1.33 |
Home stats use Albacete's home record; away stats use Sabadell's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.