Albacete vs Eldense — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Albacete
42%
Draw
28%
Eldense
31%
Expected goals
1.36–1.13
Albacete · Eldense
Albacete win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 1–0 (10.5%), 0–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Albacete score at least twice in 39%; Eldense in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Eldense goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Albacete goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market reference | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 28% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Albacete | 2.30 |
| Draw | 3.43 |
| Eldense | 3.09 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Albacete
| 16 Aug | A | vs Las Palmas | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Oviedo | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Castellon | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Granada | 1–1 | D |
Eldense
| 17 Aug | A | vs Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Albacete (Home · 4 matches) | Eldense (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Albacete's home record; away stats use Eldense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.