Albacete head into this one in poor shape, taking just two points from their last five and sitting in mid-table with little momentum. Their home record has been leaky — conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game at home — and BTTS has landed in 65% of their home fixtures, well above the league average of 54%. Eibar, by contrast, arrive on the back of four straight wins and a draw, looking every bit like a side with genuine promotion ambitions.

The tactical contrast is stark. Eibar have been defensively disciplined on the road, keeping clean sheets in 35% of away games while conceding just 1.1 per match. Their BTTS rate of 35% away from home sits well below the league norm, suggesting they know how to manage games.

The limited head-to-head record — one meeting, one Eibar win — offers little to counter the broader picture. Eibar look undervalued here, and this game shapes up as tighter on the scoreline than Albacete's defensive record might suggest.